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Author Topic: Plausible Scenario in Which Maura Could Have Become Lost in the Woods  (Read 44 times)

MauraMurrayEvidence

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Repercussions for Maura having left the accident site are discussed here: https://www.reddit.com/r/MauraMurrayEvidence/comments/5fk8q2/if_maura_murray_was_alone_and_not_dui_she_had/

I don't propose that Maura would have walked off into the woods immediately like a Zombie from the Walking dead. Instead, I believe she ended up in a very dangerous area of the forest, just off 112. An area too dangerous even for law enforcement searchers, and, as a result, she has not been found yet. I explain how I think this could have happened below.

Assuming that Maura had successfully evaded law enforcement and was at a distance from the accident site, her next immediate concern would be to obtain housing for the night. The basic human need for shelter and food must have been a priority at that time.

If we assume, when Maura fled the accident site, that she believed she could make it to the next town to obtain housing, the following scenario is possible:

This sign post indicates that another town was further down 112, which one might assume, has lodging available to it:



If Maura went down 112 and got quite far out, she would eventually be traveling up Kancamagus Pass. This part of 112 features a "gradual incline during the initial 16 miles" with an additional "5 miles" with "an average 7% grade" with a "1,300 feet rise over 4.6 miles."

From: http://www.northeastcycling.com/crank-the-kanc/

"During the initial 16 miles you’ll only be transitioning about 1,000 feet vertically so you know that you’ll be facing quite a feat closer to the end. You’ll want to pace yourself accordingly so that you’ll have the energy necessary when you reach the steeper climb after already having traveled a number of kilometers. This can be quite a trick and many cyclists falter at the end because they burned up too much steam at the beginning.

Once you’ve pushed your bike approximately 15 miles you’ll level out..."

It is very possible Maura got very far down 112 and found herself unable to continue or go back. If Maura had hit "the wall" and was exhausted, Maura would suddenly find herself in a situation in which she had no good choices.

The best choice for her would be to attempt to build some shelter off the side of the road.

If we take the bookmark as a clue, Maura had just read Chapter 15 of the Not Without Peril book, here: Chapter15.pdf In that chapter, there is a discussion about building shelters.

The Oxygen show does address this issue, when they discuss the search made by New Hampshire Fish and Game Lt. Todd Bogardus here: http://www.oxygen.com/video/share/3600196.

However, I have to wonder if there were places that were too dangerous for Lt. Bogardus to take his dogs, even during a search. And a steep incline area strikes me as a good possibility.

Its very dark out there. According to Fred Murray, "you can't see your hand in front of your face" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTtuowTdeaM&feature=youtu.be&t=3m7s.

I think it is reasonable to consider the possibility that Maura exited the road to build shelter while there was inadequate lighting. I don't know the area or terrain up there at all - I've never been there, but I do think its possible that the area off the road could have been dangerous enough, that, a misstep could have resulted in a life ending fall.

The question is, where would that be?

Here is a section of Google Maps that appears to be the start of such an incline towards Mt Moosilauke, the cause of the steep incline:

https://www.google.com/maps/dir//44.0592757,-71.793619/@44.041929,-71.8832269,12z/data=!4m2!4m1!3e0

In my opinion, this area should be searched, (BUT SAFELY) in addition to dangerous areas off of Old Peters Road.
« Last Edit: December 25, 2019, 12:03:58 pm by MauraMurrayEvidence »

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MauraMurrayEvidence

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Comment by Lanaya77
Looks like I'm a bit late to this party.. Just now seeing this, I was just there last summer of 2018. I was around that area where the Beaver pond is, Mount Moosilauke, the incline on 112 a few times. There's only a small stretch where she would have fallen.. It probably got covered though in one of the searches or at least when Fred and R. Graves were searching on foot those first few years.

But it's worth a shot!

Comment by fulkstop
We know Atwood reportedly searched east of the crash site. Do we know anything about his route or the time of his reported search?

Comment by BonquosGhost
IMO, there is no plausible scenario in which Maura could have become lost in the woods. Not one person who has ever searched the area, professionals, LE, and others esp in the first few weeks, could NOT find a single track or anything leading off the road for miles....It was winter. Here is what evidence of someone walking in snow looks like.....


Since there was less than 5m between when Faith and the bus driver SAW the Saturn's driver and help arrived, and Maura could run a 5m mile, then she could not have gone further than a mile from the scene as E-vehicles would have spotted her. She never could have made it 10 miles out, because there were numerous and multiple people coming in both directions, and never saw anyone out on the roads within the timeframe.

Since this is a winding and dark, dangerous road in winter, that I have traveled many many times, anyone seen on it at night in WINTER would have stuck out as extremely odd. No one has seen this (besides RF's dubious account). She was not hopping into the woods every time a vehicle went by, doing multiple jumps, as there would be even MORE evidence of someone doing this....Here is what that would look like to trackers.......


There were no signs of anyone building any shelters anywhere around the area also, as it would have left MOUNDS of evidence behind, esp with everyone knowing a missing person was out there somewhere......

New Hampshire Fish and Game Lt. Todd Bogardus even made the statement that there was NOTHING of any evidence found. He said it was the BEST possible time to search for ANY signs of someone "heading off" into 1-2 foot snow drifts off the road. ZERO evidence. Many people from different parts of the country are unfamiliar with New England snow and snowdrifts. Even a small bird can be tracked under these conditions.


Also, going down a steep embankment, whether intentional, drunk, concussion, or otherwise would have extreme evidence of occurring. None of this was ever found.

Everyone can agree Maura weighed about 120lbs more than a bird. No one can get OUT of that area without leaving a track behind. Then add in, being seen by neighbors or a driver. The odds of ALL these occurring at the same time are infinitesimal.....

Definition of infinitesimal

1 : immeasurably or incalculably small an infinitesimal difference 2 : taking on values arbitrarily close to but greater than zero

It has since been determined that the car was drivable on scene, which makes it less likely to outrun a police vehicle by yourself. It was stated once that a plane crashed in 1942 in this story, but not found for a very long time...

https://www.hikenewengland.com/WaternomeeB18Crash070916.php

However, this object was flying and crashed, and not leaving a trail through the winter woods for miles and miles. It was also traveling very very fast, so it was extremely harder to track, esp without today's technology. Once radar was lost, it could be in hundreds of square miles.

Last topic, there has not been one 100% identifiable position that Maura was in the Saturn at the WB corner. This is not a conspiracy, this is a fact. No one ID'd her, and no one in that area knew her. Searching in dangerous areas near this spot, though noble, could prove to be fruitless when there hasn't been confirmation that it WAS Maura, and she that she escaped the area in mere minutes without a track or a sighting.

At least on this topic, most professionals who searched, have agreed that there was not ONE sign of any of that type of activity. This is also a timeline issue as well, as there hasn't been any person yet who can run the 5 mile in under a 4 minutes, in order for them to get outside of the immediate search area, before help and a boatload of others arrived on scene.....

Comment by fulkstop
She never could have made it 10 miles out, because there were numerous and multiple people coming in both directions, and never saw anyone out on the roads within the timeframe.

u/mauramurrayevidence is proposing that Maura could have gone east. All emergency vehicles (local LE, state LE, ambulance, fire truck) came from the west. We know that Smith only searched east (and part of OPR), and we know that Monaghan and the ambulance traveled in tandem, never venturing east of the crash site.

The fact is, the only person who is known to have searched east on the night that Maura disappeared is Butch Atwood. And the scope of that search is unclear.

This is most likely the reason that LE has consistently held the view that Maura traveled east. Personally, I am not convinced that she didn't start out west or that she didn't go down OPR. But this post is certainly plausible.

Comment by BonquosGhost
Someone "could" have traveled East towards Lincoln. But here are some reasons it is extremely unlikely.... Atwood did not travel East, he went to the French Pond area and to the store (as he alleges) here doing this loop.....https://www.google.com/maps/dir/The+Moose+Rack,+4+Wild+Ammonoosuc+Road+Route+112,+Woodsville,+NH/115+French+Pond+Rd,+Woodsville,+NH+03785/@44.11894,-71.954062,15z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m14!4m13!1m5!1m1!1s0x4cb48a4e935f5dcf:0xf91d02832c3333f3!2m2!1d-71.935138!2d44.120795!1m5!1m1!1s0x4cb48baa4e432fe7:0xe31649addbc186bd!2m2!1d-71.9539731!2d44.115431!3e0
Since Karen was traveling East and was mere minutes behind 001, and after that point highly aware of the scene, she NEVER witnessed anyone walking/jogging or anything of the sort. As a social worker, and now aware of the Saturn scene with 001, she would've been extra cautious of seeing someone out in winter on a desolate road all alone. I find the idea of anyone jumping off into the snowbanks in this area as pure ridiculousness in pitch black, and no signs in the snow were encountered by any pro searcher for many miles in either direction. Since anyone leaving that scene, even a winter track runner doing a winter mile in 6m, there would not be enough time to get much over a mile from the Saturn, til when the witnesses were there.....

Next, Susan Champy was driving West from Lincoln, aware of the Saturn scene as well, and she NEVER witnessed anyone on the roads either. Again, since 1 jump in pitch darkness off the road is shear lunacy, if anyone knows these roads, multiple jumps and its evidence were never found as well.....

I dont believe OPR was a plowed road in winter in 04, so there are no signs by anyone that someone went that way. Too many vehicles, now advised to BOLO for a female, never witnessed anyone walking/running West, and Atwood sitting on his bus never saw anyone walk/run by him within 30 feet of him.

Others have suggested the driver may have been injured, concussed, or "other" at the scene, which would also include dizziness and low thought activity, which means these would deter abilities to get too far also....

Since this idea is extremely implausible, yet not totally impossible, the 2 most viable options here are leaving in another car (voluntarily or not) from that scene, OR Maura was never there.. The number 1 way for a magician to make an tiger disappear, is to not have an tiger there to begin with....No one can verify Maura "was" actually there (without CCTV), nor did anyone know her to verify it really was her there, so her "not" being the driver at the WB corner is still an option.....

Comment by fulkstop
I don't have my PC so I will have to wait until later to respond to Atwood's search, but if I am wrong about him going east, thank you for correcting me.

Comment by BonquosGhost
It was only what Atwood said he did, if we believe him. You may be correct, although there's not much to go on here....

Comment by fulkstop
Well thanks again for drawing the issue to my attention. I will give a more detailed response when I am at my pc.

Comment by fulkstop
It has since been determined that the car was drivable on scene, which makes it less likely to outrun a police vehicle by yourself. It was stated once that a plane crashed in 1942 in this story...

I have never seen it said that the car was drivable on scene. I have seen it said that there was no mechanical issue preventing Maura from driving it. But one theory that I, and a few others, have recently had is that the tires of Maura's car were stuck in the water-filled ditch where police reportedly found her car; because this issue has not been addressed, it is plausible that Maura was unable to drive her car on scene (because she was stuck).

I'm not sure why you brought up the plane crash. It was brought up in Not Without Peril to give some history on the allocation of resources to search and rescue efforts in New Hampshire. But the people in the plane were not the ones who built a shelter.

Comment by BonquosGhost
When Karen went by the scene, the Saturn had 2 wheels (passenger side) ON the road. The other 2 off the road a bit. Since Marrottes saw reverse lights and the car moving after it spun out, its possible the car was moved by someone/s. I brought up the plane, as it was suggested it wasn't found for years where they crashed. But it was an object in the sky crashing going hundreds of miles an hour. A person not being found, would show signs on the snowy ground, and a known trail to where they were going, and would be found immediately....

Comment by 2greygirls
The bomber crash on Waternomee? There was search and rescue that night... doctors from the hospital (apartments next to what used to be the Earl of Sandwich) were called in in case casualties needed aid.
Ps: I have hiked to that plane many times.

Comment by BonquosGhost
The point in this was someone compared a minor car slide out and a person vanishing, to not not finding a plane that went down off course. No comparison. A plane flying even at 200mph, going off radar, would be WAY harder to find going that fast. 15m would be 50 miles off course, not the same as a car with a missing person walking away.....Psssst taking pieces of any downed plane is considered illegal by authorities. I know someone who was caught doing that......may be a Fed crime.....

Comment by 2greygirls
Not if it is not attached. Also, I was on the preservation committee for this particular plane, check out the remembrance plaque if you ever do the hike, I carried it up and attached it to the boulder. (Among others).

Comment by BonquosGhost
Wow very cool....good to know. I just knew someone who got in a bit of trouble taking a piece of a plane. Thanks for the tidbit!

Comment by fulkstop
Interesting about witness a. Do you recall where you saw her statement about the position of the car?

Comment by BonquosGhost
I believe she stated in the episode 30 interview that the car was parked parallel out on the road. Looking at wmur videos from a day or 2 later, the passenger side tires had to be on pavement by seeing where there are in relation to the road, THEN the driver's side tires would be off in some snow. This is related to the width of the vehicle, and the video footage shown.....EDIT: just noticed in your witness C post, near the bottom is a quote posted by breathingpermafrost. It states that "the car was out on the DANG road, and NOT in the snowbank." This seems to further show the Saturn def being somewhat out on the road, and also being able to drive away with very little problem......

Comment by Bill_Occam
Locals say weekday traffic on Route 112 at the time Maura disappeared is six to twelve cars per hour. You’re putting a great deal of faith in a very small number of people who, even if one of them did indeed see Maura, may to this day have never heard of her disappearance.

Comment by Bill_Occam
I could not agree more.

 

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